Due to this defect, it took an especially rich array of observable outcomes and an especially compelling theoretical simplicity for it to gain rational acceptance. A hypothesis is a tentative explanation . Bandura's research showed that children who saw adult models commit violent acts repeated those acts more than children who were not exposed to such aggressive models. Which of the following statements is true of an explanatory This closure did not occur during a normal period. This is why, for example, we are amused but not persuaded by the rooster who thinks that the sun is raised each morning by his mighty crowing. A(n) ________ is a chamber that isolates the subject from the external environment. The simplicity test, as explained here, is related to the makes-sense test. A 17-pound meteorite of unknown origin was found in Antarctica. a. when participants are losing Which of the following statements is CORRECT? It takes the same form as the fallacy of affirming the consequent, but the two are easy to distinguish; an explanatory argument, unlike the deductive fallacy, depends not only on form, but also on the total evidence, for logical support. A theory with great explanatory power makes few assumptions, has significant predictive power and helps to reduce uncertainty in a precise and accurate way. You'll get a detailed solution from a subject matter expert that helps you learn core concepts. Then state whether it is general or singular and whether the explanation or the observable outcome came first. serves here as an explanation of the otherwise unpredictable appearance of the comet on Christmas Day of 1758. 16. It has long been my suspicion that, especially in Washington, when people say that they have read a book, they mean something other than attempting to glean meaning from each sentence. c. Hypotheses usually are relatively narrow in scope; theories have broad explanatory power. , Why is Tylenol the pain reliever hospitals use most? The ads imply that its better than other brands. Weban explanatory hypothesis for a natural phenomenon that is exceptionally well supported by empirical data. Psychologists scientifically study ________. Each of these passages discusses an explanation that might be thought to be unfalsifiable. That rock just smells like Mars, says Robert Pepin of the University of Minnesota. Epistemic probability, as explained in Chapter 9, refers to the probability of the statements truth given all relevant available evidence. If the prior probability of the outcome is high, then we expect the outcome to happen anywayeven if the hypothesis is false. a. Because the ideas of creationism cannot be tested through experiment and observation. C. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. There was no control group with which to compare his patients who received the treatment. In an experiment, the group of subjects not exposed to the treatment being studied but otherwise treated identically to the experimental group. I never thought it would work, but I read somewhere that we should get a cat if we wanted to rid ourselves of the mice in the garage. But explanatory arguments are inductive arguments. a. Sample exercise. Clearly in Afghanistan. Arthur Conan Doyle, There has recently been a startling decline in a large number of amphibian populations, apparently because UV radiation is harmful to them. The husband said he put the pipe somewhere, and the plumber had no way of knowing where; how often is someone going to be able to sneak in and find something like that without being caught? d. They see it as part of their role. Instructors found that when a student pilot was scolded for a poor landing, the student usually did better the next time. c. social learning theory To say that an explanation or an outcome is not falsifiable is to say that any observation at all is consistent with the explanation. b. Organisms can perform many reactions and activities, by acquiring, using, and transforming energy. Hundreds of people gathered for a second night Wednesday to see an image described as the outline of the Virgin Mary on a wall of an empty house in Hanover Township, Pa. But you would have done far better to propose, Seven is not in the set. If you had been right, you not only would have confirmed your preferred even-numbers answer, but also you would have ruled out the whole-numbers alternativethereby improving the logical support for your answer. Empirical knowledge is knowledge that is based on experience and observation. A pathway by which we can come to discover and better understand our world. Immediately penalize spectators for aggressive acts. If hes her father, then he will go to great lengths to take care of her. This is a way of emphasizing the importance of an improbable outcome. In the case study of Billy the hockey goalie, what did he learn? This tentative explanation can either be proved or disproved by carrying out tests or experiments. -Easier to disprove. Who was the first person referred to as a psychologist? As a consequence of organisms' ability to reproduce and of evolutionary change, populations may become better adapted to their environments. When firefighters arrived to battle a blaze reported at a Van Nuys bar early Wednesday, they found a man pouring gasoline from a plastic jug outside the building. Exploratory research is defined as a research used to investigate a problem which is not clearly defined. The researchers also monitored a drought that killed off 85 percent of the finches on an island one year. . William James was the ________. It is much harder to invent an explanation that successfully predicts future observations. A Guide to Good Reasoning: Cultivating Intellectual Virtues, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, The Total Evidence Condition (1): the Improbability of the Outcome, The Total Evidence Condition (2): the Probability of the Explanation, [If we are well above sea level, then water boils quickly.]. Examples of this abound, even in some of the most widely accepted explanatory theories. MIU had practiced TM on eight nonconsecutive days, without a miss, when the preceding days forecast predicted mild or continuing mild weather. A. Favor outcomes that would falsify alternative explanations. B. In a window on one side was a burning Molotov cocktail. It assigned a central role to gravity, which is, in effect, action at a distance; but it did not offer any account of how gravitational forces can act across space without any intervening physical bodies. The lad said that Suzy and the hired man were up in the hayloftthat Suzy had her dress up and the hired man had lowered his trousers. The point is that, other things being equal, simple explanations, like frequently occurring and nonmysterious explanations, have a higher prior probability. b. Thousands of lives are going to be wrecked over this. At least one source of income was going to be wrecked. Explanation: Astrology is reliable. An experiment that makes it possible to determine decisively between alternative hypotheses. Teacher to student: I never received your research paper. Aha! you say, Someone is casing the joint and now knows not to burglarize us, since someone answered the phone! This explanation is the sort of thing that is known to happenburglars do sometimes call ahead to see if anyone is homeso it is not implausibly low. Astrology is reliable. Can appear to reveal links between two phenomena that do not actually exist. Which of the following are characteristics of reliable empirical data? A theory predicts events in a broad, general context; a hypothesis makes a specific prediction about a specified set of circumstances. \end{bmatrix} Vitamin C is an antioxidant, but exactly how does that connect with the bodys immunity to the cold virus?). But where the two species competed for seeds, one evolved a beak suited for the small seeds, while the other developed a beak for the large seeds. If higher expectations by teachers and by themselves causes students to perform better, then randomly selected students whom teachers believefalselyto have greater potential end up performing better. b. fans become more aggressive after watching violent contact sports Ideally, the explanation contains a cohesive and cogent understanding of the origins of the problems, the conditions that perpetuate them, the obstacles interfering with their solution, and the resources available to address them. Develop strict alcohol control policies. Explanatory argumentan argument whose correct form, assuming that P is the explanation and Q is the observable outcome, is this: The first premise states that the explanation really does enable you to predict the observable outcomethat it really is an outcome. A general, fact-based understanding of the basics of biology and other sciences, the scientific method, and the social, political, and legal implications of scientific information. Specialists found the cause by taking motion pictures of the patients vocal cords during an attack and during a normal period. I was being more careful about my health because I was engaged in the experiment. What is the name given to this step of the scientific method? In this section we will look at the improbability of the outcome. e. b and c, a. athletes view aggressive acts that would be judged inappropriate in society in general as more appropriate in the sport environment, The research examining the relationship between aggression and performance supports which conclusion? I think it might be haunted. a. immature I do take a lot of vitamin C over the winter and get only one or two colds, though I usually get three or four. Complete each 2. So an argument of this sort is probably just a logical mistake, not an explanatory argument. Deduce what? said he, petulantly. Treatment: in a research study, any condition applied to subjects - those in the treatment group - that is not applied to subjects in a control group. The second premise states that the observable outcome is known to have happenedthat it has been observed. When have you had to convince someone to do something? Why does the speaker emphasize silence? The change in genetic characteristics of a population over time, accounts for the diversity of organisms and the unity among them. People in the South tend to rate the President more favorably than do people in the North Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004. ], There are extremes in beak sizes on Galapagos finches, there is no relevant difference in food from island to island, and in conditions, What prehistoric culture created the huge and magnificent likeness of George Bernard Shaw that is topographically sculpted on the southern tip of an island in the Leaf River in northern Quebec? Also termed the data, the prediction, or the facts. The logic of the gods argument would benefit if its observable outcome ruled out the luck alternativeif, for example, the outcome were revised, as Bacon hints, to this: Nobody who worships the gods has drowned in a shipwreck. 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