Nationally, a growing number of experts and firms are predicting U.S. home prices will fall, some expecting slight, single-digit drops, while others expect prices to fall by double digits, perhaps even over 20%. Median sale price: $611,600. Theres going to be a terrible consolidation, he said, though he added he believes ultimately itll be good for the industry., In 2020 and 2021, when Congress was writing COVID-19 stimulus checks, Kelman said real estate diversified in an interesting way because those stimulus checks allowed people to experiment with real estate.. According to him, about half a million Californians browsed the website UtahRealEstate.com in search of property to buy. I like the word contraction better than collapse, said Jim Wood, director of research and science and the Ivory-Boyer senior fellow at the Kem C. Gardner Institute. We go back to the 70s, for example, Eskic said. Then the rates hit and they were left holding the bag, Eskic said. He expects buyers and sellers will step back and wait for the dust to settle, many of them locked in at low, 3% mortgage rates that helped send the nations housing market into a frenzy in 2020 and 2021. We always have deceleration in the rate of increases as the cycle plays itself out. The U.S. housing market is going through what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has called a difficult correction and a reset as it comes off the tail end of a pandemic frenzy fueled housing bubble. In its fight with record inflation levels throughout 2022, the Fed made a series of aggressive borrowing rate hikes, which translated to a spike in mortgage rates that priced or spooked buyers out of the market. Homes in Big Willow Creek Estates are under construction in Draper on Friday, Nov. 11, 2022. READ REDFIN'S FAIR HOUSING POLICY. In January 2023, 17.5% of homes in Utah sold below list price, down 27.8 points yearover year. In Utah, because of its continued strong job economy, experts predict the states housing market to experience some turbulence in 2023 but come out strong next year. million Redfin.com users who searched for homes across more than 100 metro areas. No, you shouldnt wait to buy a home. Heres what volatile mortgage rates are doing to your purchasing power, Stuck between rent hikes and high home prices, this family is scraping by to afford a home, still cant afford to buy something at a significantly lower quality, How the housing market is making boomers richer and millennials poorer, how many other Utahns the market has priced out, 79% of Utah households couldnt afford the states median priced home, Why two housing experts disagree on how much Utah home prices will drop in 2023, National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. Mashvisors Utah housing market forecast 2022 and pretty much all other real estate forecasts for the year have identified Salt Lake City metro area as the countrys hottest housing market-beating other burgeoning areas like Boise ID and Spokane WA. Site Map | FastExpert, inc. 2021. Alfred is a content writer with years of experience writing about the US housing market. You can find some of the most distinguished and reputable real estate agents using Mashvisors real estate agent directory. Along with his love of family, he has a very strong competitive spirit, is passionate about personal development, and truly cares for others. The mortgage rates will likely continue to rise compared to what they are today. If you would like to buy a house in this dynamic state, the best time to house hunt is in the early spring (April) when inventory is at its highest in preparation for the hot summer real estate market, and Utah house prices are at their lowest. While Utah is below the national average in many areas, home prices have managed to remain strong. For the average mortgage, the difference translates into approximately a $1000 difference for a similar home, representing tens of thousands of dollars over the life of the loan. After a peak of the housing market in May 2022, when the Utah median home price reached a record $577,500, Utah house prices have slowly been decreasing, although they remain higher than they were the year prior. Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! In Utah, housing prices have begun to decline, down from their peak in May, when the median sales price of Salt Lake County homes was $565,600. Yun has said the margin of price declines will likely depend on the region. REDFIN IS COMMITTED TO AND ABIDES BY THE FAIR HOUSING ACT AND EQUAL OPPORTUNITY ACT. The migration during the Pandemic contributed to the increased demand in the Utah housing market and an increase in housing prices. Families flourish in Utah. Thats the story of 2022. Thats not good news for affordability or Utahs housing shortage, which they calculate hit 31,000 units after the big home building boom of 2021. At the same time, the number of homes sold fell 34.7% and the number of homes for sale rose 81.9%. Historically speaking, real estate only becomes more expensive over time. Is the Utah housing market going to crash in 2023? Eskic, however, is predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. However, as the level of Utah housing prices outstripped the national average, the demand is bound to decline as salaries are not increasing nearly as fast as property prices. We dont have that.. Connect with an Agent If you are using a screen reader, or having trouble reading this website, please call Redfin Customer Support for help at 1-844-759-7732. Despite the expensive prices, the inventory cannot keep up with the growth pace. Utahs housing experts continue to shy away from the word crash, since what happened in 2022 is still nothing like what happened after the 2006 housing bubble popped. Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! But high mortgage rates, some weeks hovering over 7%, did trigger a type of collapse in demand and sales. Wallethub found Utah is the. And while the days of sub-3% rates are gone, they are not expected to go exorbitantly high. Key Market Stats for the Utah Housing Market According to September 2022 data, some of the key market stats for the Utah housing market appear as follows: Median home price: $533,500 - a 5.6% Y.o.Y. The strong demand and limited supply of home inventory will push against price declines and keep home prices relatively stable over time. While the market in Utah is feeling a correction similar to the rest of the Nation, it weathered the 2008 recession relatively well and is expected to maintain a strong housing market. Like many other housing markets in the United States, the Utah housing market follows seasonal trends. The direction and pace at which home prices are changing are indicators of the strength of the housing market and whether homes are becoming more or less affordable. Three of the top ten most overvalued US housing markets are in Utah. San Francisco was the most searched for destination among homebuyers looking to leave, followed by Los Angeles, New York, Washington and Chicago. Home > Blog > Market News & Trends > Utah Housing Market- Trends and Predictions for 2022. The Utah housing market is poised for economic growth, continually making it a desirable place to live, bringing with it a demand for homes, straining supply, and causing prices to remain and increase in value. In January 2023, home prices in Utah were down 3.0% compared to last year, selling for a median priceof $518,200. Predictions include price drops, terrible consolidation, but better buyer balance, 2022 was a roller coaster year for the housing market, growing number of experts and firms are predicting U.S. home prices will fall, nations median home price ballooned by over 41%, The great reset of 2022: The year the Fed had no mercy on the housing market, U.S. navigating pandemic housing bubble, Fed chairman says. However, there is no denying that the rapid increase in interest rates, with more likely in the work before inflation reaches a targeted rate of 2%, has significantly affected it. Housing prices are deemed overvalued when their local incomes, job market, and economy do not support the sale prices. The researchers Jim Wood and Dejan Eskic, both from the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Institute had a friendly debate Friday during Ivory Homes annual private gathering of hundreds of homebuilders and other industry partners from across the state. Salt Lake City, Utah Just like Utah peaches Forecast home price change by May 2022: 23.5% Local professional: Dave Robison, broker and owner of goBE Realty, and former president of Utah Association of Realtors and Salt Lake Board of Realtors What makes the Salt Lake City market poised for growth? The beautiful Rocky Mountains are our backyard, giving us an unlimited opportunity for outdoor experiences of any kind! These numbers are nothing to worry about, as they indicate a return to a more balanced housing market in Utah. 30-year mortgage rate: 5.59000%. Forecasted home price change: +8.5%. Given that interest rates more than doubled in less than a year, its impossible for there not to be an impact on the housing market. At the very least, folks can expect some sort of moderation over the next few years but not a decline. If you are investing in real estate properties to rent out as vacation homes, find out the short-term rental laws in the city and county youre considering. Check! That is, after a summer of twist and turns, when prices peaked, interest rates went sky high, buyers were shocked out of the market, and sellers were saying, Wait, how come were not selling the home in two days? Woods research colleague at the Kem C. Gardner Institute , Dejan Eskic, is more bearish, predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. He noted in the early 1980s there were a few (quarterly) periods where prices actually declined before hitting a positive trajectory soon after. The direction and pace at which home prices are changing are indicators of the strength of the housing market and. Historically, Utah has weathered downturns and national economic disasters with less adverse effects than the other 49 States in the Union. On average, the number of homes sold was down 34.7% year over year and there were 1,769 homes sold in January this year, down 2,712 homes sold in January last year. They can also indicate whether homes are lingering on the market or being sold faster than sellers are listing them. Strong job growth cities like Boise and Salt Lake City are harder to forecast, he said, as affordability issues keep first-time buyers from getting into the market. Right now, its close to 5. Please note that while we have included updated and accurate Airbnb data from Mashvisor, each city and county have different rules and regulations about short-term rentals. With their buying power significantly diminished, house hunters find themselves priced out of the market or may consider postponing their home-buying plans until interest rates return to a more affordable level. Utah Housing Market at a Glance September 2022 Even this far into 2022 with the mortgage rate hikes, Utah remains one of the hottest markets. Therefore, Wood is predicting a couple of quarters in 2023, with home prices likely the most vulnerable in the first and second quarter of the year. Buying read more, FastExpert, Inc is a California Licensed Broker. The jarring pace of Utah's housing market and its impact on Utahns "is why we think these investments are so important," Cox said. For September of 2022 Utah saw the median sale price remain flat compared to August and is still up almost 6% from 2021. Keep in mind, however, that during the pandemic housing frenzy from early 2020 to late 2022, the nations median home price ballooned by over 41%, so even if the most pessimistic predictions pan out, they arent slated to erase the historic price gains seen over the last two years. We went through a real roller coaster ride the past couple of years mainly because of the pandemic. It is equally impressive to see that the unemployment rate remained at a very low level even as the state added over 52,400 people to the workforce. After a big boom over the past two years, there will essentially be no change nationally in home prices in 2023, said the National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun. Utah home prices remain significantly higher than the national average. It isnt easy to quantify the benefits of delaying purchasing your primary residence. Still seemed achievable. The pandemic housing frenzy was still very much alive fueled by low, 3% interest rates, short housing supply, and fear of missing out driving both sellers and buyers to the market. Peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022 , he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the. This was marginally below the rate of the prior year but impressive all the same. The Utah housing market has been following similar trends as the ones observed nationwide, including a white-hot real estate market characterized by a low inventory and high demand for housing. The bull market that has been in place for quite some time appears to have lost its momentum. Major Utah cities covered in this report: These Utah real estate reports, data, forecasts, and market trends are provided for informational use. After the next seven months, the median price. They also anticipate prices to grow 8.5% and sales to grow 15.2%. All rights reserved. Its going to be tough for real estate agents. It is a valid and fundamental question as our homes are typically the largest and most expensive asset we own. With the rise of interest rates, a significant economic shift is occurring and we will likely see Utah home sales temper buyer demand. All Rights Reserved, Why two housing experts disagree on how much Utah home prices will drop in 2023, priced some two-thirds of Utahns out of affording the median priced home, Housing market is correcting but Utahs affordability crisis isnt going away. For this reason, despite the high median property price, investors in rental properties are most likely to enjoy very good returns. 1 housing market in the nation for 2022. Peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. Additional links: Historical Utah Data This is the MOST ACCURATE UTAH Housing Market Forecast for 2022. price indicates that the housing market is competitive and bidding wars are becoming more common. Utah faces a shortage of 31,000 homes. The median price of a home in the United States is currently $518,200.. It would be a huge understatement to say that it has upended the way we do things in the real estate industry and has caused some major disruptions and setbacks in many peoples plans. Even this far into 2022 with the mortgage rate hikes, Utah remains one of the hottest markets. can also indicate whether homes are lingering on the market or being sold faster than sellers are listing them. Homes sold fastest in Salt Lake County and slowest in Summit County. When he first started looking in November 2021 and into early 2022, Salt Lake Countys median single-family home price had hit $580,000, up 24% from a year earlier, according to the Salt Lake Board of Realtors. From peak-to-trough, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the mid to low teens, depending on interest rates. A low or shrinking percentage of homes selling above list price suggests that the market is becoming less competitive. of $518,200. Home prices in Utah were down 3.0% year-over-year in January. Of all the major U.S. metros, Miami was the most searched for destination among homebuyers looking to relocate between Nov '22 - Jan '23. Median listing prices were 3.6% lower than in the third quarter, suggesting that higher financing costs may have created a price ceiling. Even before COVID swept across the world, the Utah housing market was already out of reach for 63% of renter households. Eskic said it all comes down to affordability. Terms . This trend continued through the pandemic resulting in record-high home prices and rental rate growth. Peak-to-trough, with thepeak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. Industry experts and analysts have recently released their different takes on various US housing markets. 2024 will be better, Jim Wood, one of Utahs leading housing experts, told the crowd gathered at the Grand America Hotel in Salt Lake City for the Salt Lake Board of Realtors 2023 housing forecast Friday. Otherwise, the story is similar to many other states, with the number of homes sold decreasing, days on market increasing, and almost half of the listings dropping their price this month (48.9%). Even a two-year period will historically yield an increase in equity in the Utah housing market. On average, the number of homes sold was down 34.7% year over year and there were 1,769 homes sold in January this year, down 2,712 homes sold in January last year. (Now) its resetting, its balancing, its coming down.. Preston was born in Provo, Utah, and raised in Spanish Fork, Utah. Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. The Typical U.S. Home Changes Hands Every 12 Years, Down From 2020 Peak, Market Recovery Hampered by High Housing Costs, Low Supply in January, Housing Market Update: Sale Prices Flatten, Demand for Mortgages Falls as Rates Climb, Housing Market Predictions 2023: A Post-Pandemic Sales Slump Will Push Home Prices Down For the First Time in a Decade, Redfin Predicts a More Balanced Housing Market in 2022, Housing-Market Mayhem: U.S. Home Sales Likely to Hit Record High of $2.5 Trillion In 2021, REDFIN IS COMMITTED TO AND ABIDES BY THE FAIR HOUSING ACT AND EQUAL OPPORTUNITY ACT. Historically, brief and prolonged price declines in Utah went hand in hand with joblessness and recessions, both of which dont seem likely in the next two to three years. It took an average of 55 days to sell a home during the fourth quarter. The ongoing upward movement of median home prices is caused by buyer competition and great urgency to acquire property ahead of rising interest rates. While home prices have decreased about 3% month over month, home prices are up nearly 9% year over year in August. While overvalued does not necessarily mean that a housing market will crash, these markets are at a higher risk of a sharper correction when economic conditions change. . Realtor.com recently named the Salt Lake City region as the expected No. The rising inventory, coupled with listing price growth dropping below 10% for the first time in a year, offers some positives for homebuyers, Realtor.com stated in its report, as they may have more options and more time to make a decision on a home purchase.. The Utah housing market became one of the most competitive in the country, especially in areas like Salt Lake City and St. George. In Utah, housing prices have begun to decline, down from their peak in May, when the median sales price of Salt Lake County homes was $565,600. From peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the mid to low teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. Housing market predictions for 2023 vary, depending on the regional market and who you talk to, but no one is predicting a stellar year for buyers or sellers and certainly not for homebuilders. The music stopped. If you ask Perry, they have a silver lining. This gives us a 23.7% combined overall growth rate This projected growth puts them ahead of other booming markets like Boise City ID, Spokane WA, and Indianapolis IN. Utah Home Sales In the final quarter of 2022, 5,145 homes sold in the areas covered by this report. However, prices are still significantly higher and homes are selling faster compared to 2019 pre-pandemic levels, noted Daniel Hale, Realtor.coms chief economist. Forecast for 2022 High prices, likely interest rates increases, listing . This was down 45% compared to the same period the previous year and down 27.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022. This would place . The Utah housing market is amid a major shift. So Branca said he made the decision to back out of the market, hoping to maybe consider buying again when interest rates and potentially prices come down. Statewide, housing . However, like we saw during the pandemic housing frenzy, that could all vary depending on the region. Next came Sacramento, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tampa. That's a new high and a 28% jump from the median price of $430,000 in the same time period from 2020. Eskic, however, is predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. Imagine earning over $100,000 a year and being qualified to buy a half-million-dollar home but still not being able to swing it. While neither Wood nor Eskic are predicting a catastrophic, 2007-like crash, they do expect 2023 to be a challenging year, especially for homebuilders that leaned hard into speculative building in 2021. But what about the increase in interest rates? Once the market rebounds, buyers can be in an even more powerful position when the market shifts back to a more lopsided sellers market. Their goal is mainly to make a profit from investing in real estate but each of them has different approaches and strategies to achieve their goals. There are currently 8,551 residential homes for sale in the United States. A high or growing percentage of homes selling above list price indicates that the housing market is competitive and bidding wars are becoming more common. Scotty Fletcher, left, and his partner Joseph Branca hang out in their living room in the apartment they rent in Salt Lake City on Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022. The good news for buyers who are prepared to take on high mortgage rates is that they no longer face the fierce competition of early 2022. Mashvisor is a website that offers real estate investors access to several tools and a wide range of updated and accurate data to help make the process of finding a suitable investment property faster and easier. John Burns Real Estate Consulting now expects U.S. home prices to fall 20% to 22%. Utahs housing market has a tight supply, and while we may see prices decrease somewhat, its not likely to experience a significant decline in housing values. Eskic, however, is predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. When he thinks about what his parents life was like in the same window of time in their lives, he said it blows his mind. If they hadnt been so aggressive in 2020 and 2021, wed be talking about unemployment now rather than inflation. He also noted it was really Congress that juiced the economy with so much one-time stimulus money, not the Fed. These two organizations along with Freddie Mac and the National Association of Realtors predict that rates will steadily rise throughout 2022. The National Association of Realtors, however, is predicting 2023 will be a year the market will regain normalcy, expecting mortgage rates to stabilize, home sales to sag and prices to moderate. Powell, the Feds chairman, has indeed called it a pandemic frenzy housing bubble, but he and other experts all have consistently said its not like 2007 and 2008. Windermere Search AppSite Map, 2023 Windermere Real Estate Services Company / All rights reserved / Terms/Privacy / Feedback / Site Map. In addition, people are moving to Utah because of the family-friendly environment, high-ranking school systems, and endless outdoor activities available along with the National parks. All Rights Reserved, What will 2023 bring to the housing market? Windermere Foundation Buyers were actually offering pizza, cookies, even Utah Jazz tickets to literally sweeten the deal, all kinds of crazy stuff that real estate agents had to make sure to handle correctly. According to data collected in September 2022, the latest available at the time of writing, the median sale price for a house in Utah stood at $533,500, representing a 5.6% increase compared to September 2021. Scotty Fletcher, left, and his partner Joseph Branca pose for a photo in their apartment they rent in Salt Lake City on Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022. So far, Utah home prices are still up year over year, but theyve so far fallen over 9% from their peak in May, according to Eskic. The cops came and busted everyone.. Both bearded men chuckled, along with laughs and applause from the audience. Hang in there. Utah continues to be a light upon a hill to others throughout the States and even worldwide. So many factors come into play. The market was suddenly plunged into ice cold water when the Federal Reserves war with record levels of inflation sent mortgage rates skyward, and the mask that helped drive home prices so high suddenly lifted. Based on Redfin calculations of home data from MLS and/or public records. So Branca wasnt expecting to buy his dream home. But now, those days of wild buyer demand and a frenzy of seller activity is over, and real estate agents outnumber active listings. Yes! Despite the wild 2021 ride we all took inflation, a spike in gas prices, and a persistent global health crisis 2022 is looking to be another unique year for the Utah real estate market. How could I possibly give an objective opinion? One of the many reasons, and perhaps one of the most important reasons folks are moving to Utah, is because this great state boasts one of the strongest economies and job markets in the Nation. Even with the recent slowdown, a correctly priced home will sell, and it will sell with record equity growth over the last 10-year average. The average months of supply is 3 months, up 3 year over year. As mortgage rates are at record highs in 20 years by 7.08%. In 2022, Redfin itself went through two rounds of layoffs. The Utah housing market does not yet significantly favor home buyers but, given the data discussed in this report, it has certainly shifted away from sellers and into neutral territory. Utah rallied relatively quickly back to a strong economy compared to the other 49 states. Hes predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. In 2021 the average interest rate was 2.96%, the lowest interest rate that FreddieMac measured since 1971. A good indication of the markets strength and inventory is the average number of days properties stay listed. Was down 45 % compared to last year, selling for a median $. 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